Zytiga Sales Forecasts

I am expecting approval of Zytiga in the pre-chemotherapy setting in which it will be licensed for use before chemotherapy. This expands the addressable market in the US to 36,000 patients or $1.5 billion. I believe that Zytiga can capture 80% of the US market in 2014 or $1.2 billion. The European opportunity is slightly higher with an addressable market of $2.2 billion. Capturing 80% of this market could result in European sales of $1.8 million. My sales estimates for Zytiga are therefore as follows:

Sales Projections for Zytiga 2011-2015 ($ millions)
	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Sales ($ millions)
US	182	400	800	1,200	1,300
Europe	94	700	1,400	1,800	1,900
ROW	20	100	300	500	800
Worldwide	296	1,200	2,500	3,500	4,000

These estimates do not include other potential uses of Zytiga such as neoadjuvant therapy of prostate cancer and for treating breast cancer.

Zytiga currently has a US and European licence to treat men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer who have already received docetaxel-based chemotherapy.

Janssen is now seeking a licence for the drug, to be used with prednisone, for patients who have not had chemotherapy, opening it up to more patients.

If Zytiga (abiraterone acetate) can win this new indication, that would more than double its target market according to analysts, meaning it could reach annual sales of $2.5 billion in 2013.